Threat Modeling Guide

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Type	Skill Resource
Source	`~/.copilot/skills/security/references/appsec/threat-modeling-guide.md`
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Source Content

Threat Modeling Guide

Systematic approaches for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating security threats.

Threat Modeling Process
STRIDE Framework
Attack Trees
DREAD Risk Scoring
Data Flow Diagrams
Common Attack Patterns

Threat Modeling Process

Workflow: Conduct Threat Model

Define the scope and objectives:
- System boundaries
- Assets to protect
- Trust levels
Create data flow diagram:
- External entities
- Processes
- Data stores
- Data flows
- Trust boundaries
Identify threats using STRIDE:
- Apply STRIDE to each DFD element
- Document threat scenarios
Analyze and prioritize risks:
- Score using DREAD
- Rank by severity
Define mitigations:
- Map controls to threats
- Identify gaps
Validate and iterate:
- Review with team
- Update as system evolves
Document in threat model report
Validation: All DFD elements analyzed; threats documented; mitigations mapped; residual risks accepted

Threat Model Template

THREAT MODEL REPORT

System: [System Name]
Version: [Version]
Date: [Date]
Author: [Name]

1. SYSTEM OVERVIEW
   - Purpose: [Description]
   - Users: [User types]
   - Data: [Data classification]

2. SCOPE
   - In Scope: [Components included]
   - Out of Scope: [Components excluded]
   - Assumptions: [Security assumptions]

3. DATA FLOW DIAGRAM
   [DFD image or ASCII representation]

4. THREATS IDENTIFIED
   | ID | Element | STRIDE | Threat | DREAD | Mitigation |
   |----|---------|--------|--------|-------|------------|

5. RESIDUAL RISKS
   [Accepted risks with justification]

6. RECOMMENDATIONS
   [Prioritized security improvements]

STRIDE Framework

Categorization model for identifying threats.

STRIDE Categories

Category	Description	Violated Property
Spoofing	Pretending to be someone/something else	Authentication
Tampering	Modifying data or code	Integrity
Repudiation	Denying actions occurred	Non-repudiation
Information Disclosure	Exposing data to unauthorized parties	Confidentiality
Denial of Service	Making system unavailable	Availability
Elevation of Privilege	Gaining unauthorized access	Authorization

STRIDE per Element

DFD Element	Applicable Threats
External Entity	S, R
Process	S, T, R, I, D, E
Data Store	T, R, I, D
Data Flow	T, I, D

STRIDE Analysis Template

STRIDE ANALYSIS

Element: User Authentication Service
Type: Process

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ SPOOFING                                                        │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Threat: Attacker uses stolen credentials to impersonate user   │
│ Attack Vector: Phishing, credential stuffing, session hijack   │
│ Likelihood: High                                                │
│ Impact: High - Full account access                              │
│ Mitigation: MFA, session binding, anomaly detection             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ TAMPERING                                                       │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Threat: Attacker modifies authentication request in transit    │
│ Attack Vector: Man-in-the-middle, request manipulation         │
│ Likelihood: Medium                                              │
│ Impact: High - Bypass authentication                            │
│ Mitigation: TLS 1.3, request signing, HSTS                      │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ REPUDIATION                                                     │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Threat: User denies performing privileged action               │
│ Attack Vector: Claim account was compromised                   │
│ Likelihood: Medium                                              │
│ Impact: Medium - Dispute resolution difficulty                  │
│ Mitigation: Comprehensive audit logging, log integrity         │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ INFORMATION DISCLOSURE                                          │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Threat: Password hashes exposed via SQL injection              │
│ Attack Vector: SQLi, backup exposure, error messages           │
│ Likelihood: Medium                                              │
│ Impact: Critical - Mass credential compromise                   │
│ Mitigation: Parameterized queries, encryption, error handling  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ DENIAL OF SERVICE                                               │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Threat: Brute force attacks overwhelm authentication service   │
│ Attack Vector: Credential stuffing, distributed attacks        │
│ Likelihood: High                                                │
│ Impact: High - Users cannot authenticate                        │
│ Mitigation: Rate limiting, CAPTCHA, account lockout            │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ELEVATION OF PRIVILEGE                                          │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Threat: Regular user gains admin privileges                    │
│ Attack Vector: JWT manipulation, IDOR, role confusion          │
│ Likelihood: Medium                                              │
│ Impact: Critical - Full system compromise                       │
│ Mitigation: Server-side authorization, signed tokens, RBAC     │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Threat Mitigation Matrix

STRIDE Category	Standard Mitigations
Spoofing	Authentication (passwords, MFA, certificates)
Tampering	Integrity controls (signing, hashing, checksums)
Repudiation	Audit logging, digital signatures, timestamps
Information Disclosure	Encryption, access controls, data masking
Denial of Service	Rate limiting, redundancy, filtering
Elevation of Privilege	Authorization, least privilege, input validation

Attack Trees

Visual representation of attack paths to a specific goal.

Attack Tree Structure

ATTACK TREE: Compromise User Account

                    ┌─────────────────────┐
                    │ GOAL: Access User   │
                    │      Account        │
                    └──────────┬──────────┘
                               │
           ┌───────────────────┼───────────────────┐
           │                   │                   │
    ┌──────┴──────┐     ┌──────┴──────┐     ┌──────┴──────┐
    │   Obtain    │     │   Bypass    │     │   Exploit   │
    │ Credentials │     │    Auth     │     │   Session   │
    │    [OR]     │     │    [OR]     │     │    [OR]     │
    └──────┬──────┘     └──────┬──────┘     └──────┬──────┘
           │                   │                   │
     ┌─────┼─────┐       ┌─────┼─────┐       ┌─────┼─────┐
     │     │     │       │     │     │       │     │     │
   ┌─┴─┐ ┌─┴─┐ ┌─┴─┐   ┌─┴─┐ ┌─┴─┐ ┌─┴─┐   ┌─┴─┐ ┌─┴─┐ ┌─┴─┐
   │Phi│ │Crd│ │Key│   │SQL│ │JWT│ │Pwd│   │XSS│ │Fix│ │Sid│
   │sh │ │Stf│ │Log│   │ i │ │Frg│ │Rst│   │   │ │tn │ │Hj │
   └───┘ └───┘ └───┘   └───┘ └───┘ └───┘   └───┘ └───┘ └───┘

Legend:
- Phi: Phishing
- CrdStf: Credential Stuffing
- KeyLog: Keylogger
- SQLi: SQL Injection
- JWTFrg: JWT Forgery
- PwdRst: Password Reset Flaw
- XSS: Cross-Site Scripting
- Fixtn: Session Fixation
- SidHj: Session Hijacking

Attack Tree Analysis

Attack Path	Difficulty	Detection	Priority
Phishing → Credential theft	Low	Medium	High
SQL Injection → Auth bypass	Medium	High	Critical
XSS → Session steal	Medium	Medium	High
JWT forgery → Privilege escalation	High	Low	Critical

Calculating Attack Probability

def calculate_attack_probability(attack_tree_node):
    """
    Calculate cumulative probability of attack success.

    For OR nodes: P = 1 - (1-P1)(1-P2)...(1-Pn)
    For AND nodes: P = P1 * P2 * ... * Pn
    """
    if node.is_leaf:
        return node.probability

    child_probs = [calculate_attack_probability(c) for c in node.children]

    if node.operator == 'OR':
        # At least one path succeeds
        prob_all_fail = 1
        for p in child_probs:
            prob_all_fail *= (1 - p)
        return 1 - prob_all_fail

    elif node.operator == 'AND':
        # All paths must succeed
        prob_all_succeed = 1
        for p in child_probs:
            prob_all_succeed *= p
        return prob_all_succeed

DREAD Risk Scoring

Quantitative risk assessment for prioritizing threats.

DREAD Components

Factor	Description	Scale
Damage	How bad is the impact?	1-10
Reproducibility	How easy to reproduce?	1-10
Exploitability	How easy to exploit?	1-10
Affected Users	How many users impacted?	1-10
Discoverability	How easy to find?	1-10

DREAD Scoring Guide

Damage Potential:

Score	Description
10	Complete system compromise, data destruction
7-9	Large data breach, significant financial loss
4-6	Partial data exposure, service degradation
1-3	Minor information disclosure, low impact

Reproducibility:

Score	Description
10	Always reproducible, automated
7-9	Reproducible most of the time
4-6	Reproducible with some effort
1-3	Difficult to reproduce, timing dependent

Exploitability:

Score	Description
10	No skills required, exploit exists
7-9	Basic skills, tools available
4-6	Moderate skills required
1-3	Advanced skills, custom exploit needed

Affected Users:

Score	Description
10	All users
7-9	Large subset of users
4-6	Some users
1-3	Few or individual users

Discoverability:

Score	Description
10	Publicly documented, obvious
7-9	Easy to find via scanning
4-6	Requires investigation
1-3	Obscure, requires insider knowledge

DREAD Calculation

def calculate_dread_score(damage, reproducibility, exploitability,
                           affected_users, discoverability):
    """
    Calculate DREAD risk score.

    Returns: Float between 1-10
    Risk Levels:
        8-10: Critical
        6-7.9: High
        4-5.9: Medium
        1-3.9: Low
    """
    score = (damage + reproducibility + exploitability +
             affected_users + discoverability) / 5
    return round(score, 1)

def get_risk_level(dread_score):
    if dread_score >= 8:
        return 'Critical'
    elif dread_score >= 6:
        return 'High'
    elif dread_score >= 4:
        return 'Medium'
    else:
        return 'Low'

DREAD Assessment Example

THREAT: SQL Injection in Login Form

| Factor | Score | Justification |
|--------|-------|---------------|
| Damage | 9 | Full database access, credential theft |
| Reproducibility | 9 | Consistent, automated tools exist |
| Exploitability | 8 | Well-documented attack, easy tools |
| Affected Users | 10 | All users with accounts |
| Discoverability | 7 | Scanners detect easily |

DREAD Score: (9+9+8+10+7)/5 = 8.6
Risk Level: CRITICAL
Priority: Immediate remediation required

Data Flow Diagrams

Visual representation of system data movement for security analysis.

DFD Elements

Symbol	Element	Security Considerations
Rectangle	External Entity	Trust boundary crossing
Circle/Oval	Process	All STRIDE threats apply
Parallel Lines	Data Store	Tampering, disclosure, DoS
Arrow	Data Flow	Tampering, disclosure, DoS
Dashed Line	Trust Boundary	Authentication required

DFD Levels

Level	Description	Use Case
Level 0 (Context)	Single process, external entities	Executive overview
Level 1	Major processes expanded	Architecture review
Level 2	Detailed subprocesses	Detailed threat modeling

Example: E-Commerce DFD

LEVEL 0: CONTEXT DIAGRAM

                              ┌──────────────────┐
                              │                  │
     ┌────────────┐           │   E-Commerce     │           ┌────────────┐
     │            │  Orders   │    System        │  Payment  │            │
     │  Customer  │──────────▶│                  │──────────▶│  Payment   │
     │            │◀──────────│                  │◀──────────│  Gateway   │
     └────────────┘  Status   │                  │  Result   └────────────┘
                              │                  │
                              └──────────────────┘
                                      │
                                      │ Fulfillment
                                      ▼
                              ┌────────────────┐
                              │   Warehouse    │
                              │    System      │
                              └────────────────┘


LEVEL 1: EXPANDED VIEW

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                         TRUST BOUNDARY                               │
│  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  │
│                                                                      │
│   ┌─────────┐       ┌─────────┐       ┌─────────┐       ┌─────────┐ │
│   │         │       │   Web   │       │  Order  │       │ Payment │ │
│   │   CDN   │──────▶│ Server  │──────▶│ Service │──────▶│ Service │ │
│   │         │       │         │       │         │       │         │ │
│   └─────────┘       └────┬────┘       └────┬────┘       └────┬────┘ │
│                          │                 │                 │      │
│                          │                 │                 │      │
│                          ▼                 ▼                 ▼      │
│                    ╔═══════════╗     ╔═══════════╗    ╔═══════════╗ │
│                    ║  Session  ║     ║  Orders   ║    ║  Payment  ║ │
│                    ║   Store   ║     ║    DB     ║    ║    DB     ║ │
│                    ╚═══════════╝     ╚═══════════╝    ╚═══════════╝ │
│                                                                      │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
                          │
                          │ Crosses Trust Boundary
                          ▼
                    ┌───────────┐
                    │  Payment  │
                    │  Gateway  │
                    │ (External)│
                    └───────────┘

Trust Boundary Analysis

Boundary Crossing	Authentication	Authorization	Encryption
Customer → Web Server	Session cookie	-	TLS 1.3
Web Server → Order Service	mTLS	Service account	Internal TLS
Order Service → DB	Connection pool	DB user roles	TLS
Payment Service → Gateway	API key + HMAC	IP whitelist	TLS 1.3

Common Attack Patterns

OWASP Top 10 Mapping

Rank	Vulnerability	STRIDE	Common Attack
A01	Broken Access Control	E	IDOR, privilege escalation
A02	Cryptographic Failures	I	Weak encryption, exposed keys
A03	Injection	T, E	SQLi, XSS, command injection
A04	Insecure Design	All	Logic flaws, missing controls
A05	Security Misconfiguration	I, E	Default creds, verbose errors
A06	Vulnerable Components	All	Outdated libraries, CVEs
A07	Authentication Failures	S, E	Credential stuffing, weak passwords
A08	Software/Data Integrity	T	Unsigned updates, CI/CD attacks
A09	Logging Failures	R	Missing logs, log injection
A10	SSRF	I, T	Internal service access

Attack Pattern Catalog

ATTACK PATTERN: SQL Injection (A03)

Threat: T (Tampering), E (Elevation of Privilege)

Attack Vector:
1. Identify input fields that construct SQL queries
2. Test for injection: ' OR '1'='1' --
3. Extract data: UNION SELECT password FROM users
4. Escalate: Execute stored procedures, write files

Detection:
- WAF rules for SQL patterns
- Prepared statement verification
- Database query logging

Mitigation:
- Parameterized queries (primary)
- Input validation (secondary)
- Least privilege database accounts
- Web application firewall

Test Cases:
- Single quote injection: '
- Boolean-based: ' OR 1=1 --
- Time-based: '; WAITFOR DELAY '0:0:5' --
- UNION-based: ' UNION SELECT NULL, username, password FROM users --

Threat Intelligence Integration

Source	Purpose	Update Frequency
CVE/NVD	Known vulnerabilities	Daily
MITRE ATT&CK	Attack techniques	Quarterly
OWASP	Web application threats	Annual
Industry ISACs	Sector-specific threats	Real-time

Threat Modeling Guide

Source Content

Threat Modeling Guide

Table of Contents

Threat Modeling Process

Workflow: Conduct Threat Model

Threat Model Template

STRIDE Framework

STRIDE Categories

STRIDE per Element

STRIDE Analysis Template

Threat Mitigation Matrix

Attack Trees

Attack Tree Structure

Attack Tree Analysis

Calculating Attack Probability

DREAD Risk Scoring

DREAD Components

DREAD Scoring Guide

DREAD Calculation

DREAD Assessment Example

Data Flow Diagrams

DFD Elements

DFD Levels

Example: E-Commerce DFD

Trust Boundary Analysis

Common Attack Patterns

OWASP Top 10 Mapping

Attack Pattern Catalog

Threat Intelligence Integration